Outcomes theory knowledge base (Org)

This knowledge base provides a systematic treatment of outcomes theory as applied to managing the performance of organizations, programs, policies and collaborations [Org]. This site is for those interested in theory. If you want a practical implementation of this theory that can be used to design and implement working outcomes, evaluation, monitoring and performance management systems, you should use Systematic Outcomes Analysis based on the Outcomes Is It Working Analysis (OIIWA) approach from www.oiiwa.org site. If using any ideas or material from this knowledge base please cite this reference as: Duignan, P. (2005-insert current year) Insert name of page in Outcomes Theory Knowledge Base (Organizational) [Available at www.outcomestheory.org]. Any comments on any aspect of this knowledge base appreciated, please send to paul (at) parkerduignan.com.

Principles: Alternative outcome hierarchy transition point decision making (Org) [P16]

Principle: Alternative outcomes hierarchy transition point decision making -The transition point from an initial hypothesized outcomes hierarchy to an alternative outcomes hierarchy should be determined by level of certainty of evidence and analysis, severity of consequences relating to high-level outcomes, degree of reversibility of high-level outcomes, response consistency (tipping-pointability) of high-level outcomes and the intervention response window for the particular outcomes hierarchy. [Provisional only].

Discussion: In many situations there is an initial hypothesized outcomes hierarchy which is the best initial estimate of the real-world underlying outcomes hierarchy.  However, one or more alternative outcomes hierarchies may also be consistent with the lower levels of the both the initial hypothesized outcomes hierarchy and the underlying real-world outcomes hierarchy. As evidence and analysis accumulate, a decision needs to be made regarding the point at which to make a transition to one or other alternative outcomes hierarchies. There are a number of factors which affect when this transition should be made. 

Principle: Criteria for earlier transition to alternative outcomes hierarchy - Where severe consequences relating to high-level outcomes and/or irreversible high-level outcomes, and/or tipping-point high-level outcomes,  and/or high-level outcomes are lagged, and/or the intervention possible response window is closing, the criteria for transition to an alternative outcomes hierarchy will need to be lower that in the cases where these conditions do not apply if there is going to be any chance of effectively intervening in the outcomes hierarchy before time has run out. [Provisional only].


Copyright Dr Paul Duignan 2005 www.outcomestheory.org